Bristol North East
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol North East | 34.9% | 21.8% | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.6 | 10.4%+11.4 | 23.1%−2.3 | 20.4%−7.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,433 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 73.0% |
Current member
Damien Egan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Egan Elected | Labour | 19,004 | 45.3 |
| Lorraine Francis | Green | 7,837 | 18.7 |
| Rose Hulse | Conservative | 6,216 | 14.8 |
| Anthony New | Reform UK | 5,418 | 12.9 |
| Louise Harris | Lib Dems | 1,964 | 4.7 |
| Asif Ali | Other | 1,029 | 2.5 |
| Dan Smart | Other | 399 | 1.0 |
| Tommy Trueman | Other | 122 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated