Filton and Bradley Stoke
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filton and Bradley Stoke | 31.9% | 22.9% | 22.8% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.7 | 23.1%−0.2 | 20.4%+2.3 | 10.4%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,234 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 87.3% |
Current member
Claire Hazelgrove · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hazelgrove Elected | Labour | 22,905 | 45.5 |
| Jack Lopresti | Conservative | 12,905 | 25.6 |
| Stephen Burge | Reform UK | 6,819 | 13.5 |
| James Nelson | Green | 4,142 | 8.2 |
| Benet Allen | Lib Dems | 3,596 | 7.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated