North East Somerset and Hanham
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 46% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Somerset and Hanham | 27.2% | 26.3% | 26.1% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.9 | 20.4%+5.9 | 23.1%+3.0 | 10.4%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,063 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
Current member
Dan Norris · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Norris Elected | Labour | 20,739 | 40.6 |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | Conservative | 15,420 | 30.2 |
| Paul MacDonnell | Reform UK | 7,424 | 14.5 |
| Dine Romero | Lib Dems | 3,878 | 7.6 |
| Edmund Cannon | Green | 3,222 | 6.3 |
| Nicholas Hales | Other | 231 | 0.5 |
| Barmy Brunch | Other | 211 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated