Bristol East
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Conservative | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol East | 34.5% | 32.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.2 | 10.4%+22.3 | 20.4%−8.8 | 23.1%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,757 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 75.6% |
Current member
Kerry McCarthy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry McCarthy Elected | Labour | 20,748 | 45.0 |
| Ani Stafford-Townsend | Green | 14,142 | 30.7 |
| Dan Conaghan | Conservative | 6,435 | 14.0 |
| Tony Sutcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,713 | 5.9 |
| Farooq Siddique | Other | 1,259 | 2.7 |
| Claire Dunnage | Other | 555 | 1.2 |
| Wael Arafat | Other | 257 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated