Bristol Central
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Central | 55.1% | 26.6% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.4%+44.7 | 24.3%+2.4 | 23.1%−13.6 | 20.4%−15.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,813 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 27 |
| Employment rate | 80.2% |
Current member
Carla Denyer · Green
Previous election (2024)
The Green Party won by 24.0 points.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 28.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Denyer Elected | Green | 24,539 | 56.6 |
| Thangam Debbonaire | Labour | 14,132 | 32.6 |
| Samuel Williams | Conservative | 1,998 | 4.6 |
| Robert Clarke | Reform UK | 1,338 | 3.1 |
| Nicholas Coombes | Lib Dems | 1,162 | 2.7 |
| Kellie-Jay Keen | Other | 196 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated