Thornbury and Yate
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 20%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thornbury and Yate | 35.1% | 28.6% | 22.0% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+24.8 | 20.4%+8.2 | 23.1%−1.1 | 10.4%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,475 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 82.8% |
Current member
Claire Young · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 5.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Young Elected | Lib Dems | 20,815 | 39.0 |
| Luke Hall | Conservative | 17,801 | 33.4 |
| Andrew Banwell | Reform UK | 7,529 | 14.1 |
| Rob Logan | Labour | 5,057 | 9.5 |
| Alexandra Jenner-Fust | Green | 2,165 | 4.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
- South Cotswolds Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Stroud Labour, safe seat
- Bath Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated