Bath
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 37.9% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.6 | 23.1%−7.6 | 10.4%+4.8 | 20.4%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,776 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 71.6% |
Current member
Wera Hobhouse · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 23.3 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 21.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wera Hobhouse Elected | Lib Dems | 19,883 | 41.3 |
| Dan Bewley | Labour | 8,665 | 18.0 |
| James Wright | Conservative | 7,659 | 15.9 |
| Dom Tristram | Green | 5,952 | 12.4 |
| Teresa Hall | Reform UK | 3,798 | 7.9 |
| Colin Blackburn | Other | 1,749 | 3.6 |
| Matthew Alford | Other | 230 | 0.5 |
| Bill Blockhead | Other | 169 | 0.4 |
| A On | Other | 25 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated