Frome and East Somerset
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frome and East Somerset | 31.0% | 22.6% | 20.5% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+20.7 | 23.1%−0.4 | 20.4%+0.1 | 10.4%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,800 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 90.7% |
Current member
Anna Sabine · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 11.6 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 8.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Sabine Elected | Lib Dems | 16,580 | 35.5 |
| Lucy Trimnell | Conservative | 11,165 | 23.9 |
| David Swain | Reform UK | 6,441 | 13.8 |
| Robin Moss | Labour | 6,416 | 13.7 |
| Martin Dimery | Green | 5,083 | 10.9 |
| Shaun Hughes | Other | 737 | 1.6 |
| Gavin Heathcote | Other | 294 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Bath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- Glastonbury and Somerton Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated