Glastonbury and Somerton
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glastonbury and Somerton | 38.6% | 24.2% | 23.4% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+28.3 | 20.4%+3.8 | 23.1%+0.4 | 10.4%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,010 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 69.4% |
Current member
Sarah Dyke · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 14.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Dyke Elected | Lib Dems | 20,364 | 42.7 |
| Faye Purbrick | Conservative | 13,753 | 28.9 |
| Tom Carter | Reform UK | 7,678 | 16.1 |
| Hal Hooberman | Labour | 3,111 | 6.5 |
| Jon Cousins | Green | 2,736 | 5.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Yeovil Lib Dems, safe seat
- West Dorset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wells and Mendip Hills Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated