Yeovil
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil | 41.0% | 24.8% | 19.8% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.7 | 23.1%+1.7 | 20.4%−0.6 | 10.4%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,483 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 77.1% |
Current member
Adam Dance · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 25.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Dance Elected | Lib Dems | 23,765 | 48.6 |
| Marcus Fysh | Conservative | 11,497 | 23.5 |
| Laura Bailhache | Reform UK | 7,677 | 15.7 |
| Rebecca Montacute | Labour | 3,002 | 6.1 |
| Serena Wootton | Green | 2,403 | 4.9 |
| Steve Ashton | Other | 608 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glastonbury and Somerton Lib Dems, safe seat
- West Dorset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Taunton and Wellington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bridgwater Reform UK, toss-up
- Wells and Mendip Hills Lib Dems, safe seat
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated