West Dorset
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Dorset | 45.2% | 30.0% | 10.7% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+35.0 | 20.4%+9.5 | 23.1%−12.4 | 10.4%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,743 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 54 |
| Employment rate | 80.5% |
Current member
Edward Morello · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 14.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 15.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Morello Elected | Lib Dems | 26,999 | 51.3 |
| Chris Loder | Conservative | 19,210 | 36.5 |
| Donna Lumsden | Labour | 3,086 | 5.9 |
| Kelvin Clayton | Green | 2,288 | 4.3 |
| Oliver Chisholm | Other | 733 | 1.4 |
| Marcus White | Other | 289 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glastonbury and Somerton Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Dorset Reform UK, toss-up
- Yeovil Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Dorset Conservative, toss-up
- Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wells and Mendip Hills Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated