Wells and Mendip Hills
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells and Mendip Hills | 41.7% | 21.3% | 21.0% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.4 | 20.4%+0.8 | 23.1%−2.0 | 10.4%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 90,307 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 81.1% |
Current member
Tessa Munt · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 22.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 19.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tessa Munt Elected | Lib Dems | 23,622 | 46.9 |
| Meg Powell-Chandler | Conservative | 12,501 | 24.8 |
| Helen Hims | Reform UK | 6,611 | 13.1 |
| Joe Joseph | Labour | 3,527 | 7.0 |
| Peter Welsh | Green | 2,068 | 4.1 |
| Abi McGuire | Other | 1,849 | 3.7 |
| Craig Clarke | Other | 190 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated