North Dorset
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dorset | 32.4% | 29.3% | 23.2% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.0 | 10.3%+19.0 | 23.1%+0.1 | 10.4%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,259 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
Current member
Simon Hoare · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Hoare Elected | Conservative | 18,208 | 36.7 |
| Gary Jackson | Lib Dems | 16,619 | 33.5 |
| Ash Leaning | Reform UK | 7,894 | 15.9 |
| James Coldwell | Labour | 4,370 | 8.8 |
| Ken Huggins | Green | 2,082 | 4.2 |
| Si Adams | Other | 317 | 0.6 |
| Jeff Taylor | Other | 119 | 0.2 |
| Daniel Woodruffe | Other | 74 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Wiltshire Conservative, competitive
- West Dorset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Salisbury Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated