Bournemouth West
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth West | 26.5% | 25.7% | 23.9% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.4 | 24.3%+1.5 | 20.4%+3.5 | 10.4%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,309 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 76.9% |
Current member
Jessica Toale · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Toale Elected | Labour | 14,365 | 36.4 |
| Conor Burns | Conservative | 11,141 | 28.3 |
| Ben Aston | Reform UK | 6,647 | 16.9 |
| Jeff Hanna | Lib Dems | 4,311 | 10.9 |
| Darren Jones | Green | 2,614 | 6.6 |
| Julie Vivienne | Other | 201 | 0.5 |
| David Warden | Other | 139 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- Isle of Wight West Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated