Isle of Wight West
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isle of Wight West | 28.6% | 25.5% | 25.1% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.6 | 20.4%+5.1 | 24.3%+0.9 | 10.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 71,268 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 77.6% |
Current member
Richard Quigley · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Quigley Elected | Labour | 13,240 | 38.6 |
| Bob Seely | Conservative | 10,063 | 29.3 |
| Ian Pickering | Reform UK | 5,834 | 17.0 |
| Nick Stuart | Lib Dems | 2,726 | 7.9 |
| Cameron Palin | Green | 2,310 | 6.7 |
| Rachel Thacker | Other | 117 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative, toss-up
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated