Romsey and Southampton North
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romsey and Southampton North | 34.2% | 34.1% | 18.1% | 6.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.8 | 10.3%+23.8 | 23.1%−4.9 | 10.4%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,029 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 73.3% |
Current member
Caroline Nokes · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Nokes Elected | Conservative | 19,893 | 39.8 |
| Geoff Cooper | Lib Dems | 17,702 | 35.4 |
| Paul Barrett | Reform UK | 5,716 | 11.4 |
| Christie Lambert | Labour | 4,640 | 9.3 |
| Connor Shaw | Green | 1,893 | 3.8 |
| Fennie Yap | Other | 183 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated