Southampton Itchen
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 77%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Itchen | 30.7% | 27.1% | 21.8% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.4 | 23.1%+4.0 | 20.4%+1.4 | 10.4%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,709 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 72.1% |
Current member
Darren Paffey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Paffey Elected | Labour | 15,782 | 41.5 |
| Sidney Yankson | Conservative | 9,677 | 25.4 |
| Alex Culley | Reform UK | 6,853 | 18.0 |
| Neil Kelly | Green | 2,793 | 7.3 |
| James Batho | Lib Dems | 2,684 | 7.1 |
| Declan Clune | Other | 264 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative, toss-up
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated