Eastleigh
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 32.0% | 26.5% | 21.4% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+21.7 | 20.4%+6.1 | 23.1%−1.7 | 24.3%−14.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,953 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 84.4% |
Current member
Liz Jarvis · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 3.3 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Jarvis Elected | Lib Dems | 15,970 | 34.4 |
| Sam Joynson | Conservative | 14,424 | 31.1 |
| Daniel Shearer | Labour | 7,005 | 15.1 |
| Clare Fawcett | Reform UK | 6,151 | 13.2 |
| Ben Parry | Green | 2,403 | 5.2 |
| Russ Kitching | Other | 467 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative, toss-up
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated