New Forest East
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Forest East | 34.5% | 25.0% | 13.9% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.1 | 23.1%+1.9 | 10.3%+3.6 | 24.3%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,150 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 80.8% |
Current member
Sir Julian Lewis · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 18.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Lewis Elected | Conservative | 17,412 | 38.5 |
| Sasjkia Otto | Labour | 8,917 | 19.7 |
| Roy Swales | Reform UK | 7,646 | 16.9 |
| Caroline Rackham | Lib Dems | 7,198 | 15.9 |
| Simon King | Green | 3,118 | 6.9 |
| Mad Hatter | Other | 529 | 1.2 |
| Andrew Knight | Other | 410 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative, toss-up
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated