Southampton Test
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Test | 32.3% | 23.5% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.0 | 23.1%+0.5 | 20.4%−4.4 | 10.4%+4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,633 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 71.9% |
Current member
Satvir Kaur · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Satvir Kaur Elected | Labour | 15,945 | 44.5 |
| Ben Burcombe-Filer | Conservative | 6,612 | 18.5 |
| John Edwards | Reform UK | 5,261 | 14.7 |
| Katherine Barbour | Green | 3,594 | 10.0 |
| Thomas Gravatt | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 9.1 |
| Wajahat Shaukat | Other | 775 | 2.2 |
| Maggie Fricker | Other | 366 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative, toss-up
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated