Winchester
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winchester | 48.5% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+38.2 | 20.4%+3.0 | 23.1%−8.1 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,517 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 75.3% |
Current member
Dr Danny Chambers · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 24.2 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 25.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chambers Elected | Lib Dems | 29,939 | 52.5 |
| Flick Drummond | Conservative | 16,118 | 28.2 |
| Sean Whelan | Reform UK | 4,797 | 8.4 |
| Hannah Dawson | Labour | 3,023 | 5.3 |
| Lorraine Estelle | Green | 2,740 | 4.8 |
| Andrew Davis | Other | 146 | 0.3 |
| Chris Barfoot | Other | 142 | 0.2 |
| Kevin D'Cruze | Other | 127 | 0.2 |
| Andy Liming | Other | 44 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- East Hampshire Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated