Fareham and Waterlooville
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 59%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fareham and Waterlooville | 31.4% | 26.8% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.0 | 23.1%+3.7 | 10.3%+5.6 | 24.3%−8.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,399 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Suella Braverman · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suella Braverman Elected | Conservative | 17,561 | 35.0 |
| Gemma Furnivall | Labour | 11,482 | 22.9 |
| Bella Hewitt | Lib Dems | 9,533 | 19.0 |
| Kevan Chippindall-Higgin | Reform UK | 9,084 | 18.1 |
| Baz Marie | Green | 2,036 | 4.1 |
| Robert Holliday | Other | 217 | 0.4 |
| Edward Dean | Other | 210 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Portsmouth North Reform UK, toss-up
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Hamble Valley Conservative, safe seat
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated