Havant
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 63%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havant | 31.8% | 27.5% | 21.5% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.8 | 20.4%+7.1 | 24.3%−2.8 | 10.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,428 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 73.7% |
Current member
Alan Mak · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Mak Elected | Conservative | 12,986 | 30.8 |
| Stefanie Harvey | Labour | 12,894 | 30.6 |
| John Perry | Reform UK | 9,959 | 23.6 |
| Gayathri Sathyanath | Lib Dems | 3,275 | 7.8 |
| Netty Shepherd | Green | 2,861 | 6.8 |
| Jennifer Alemanno | Other | 211 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Portsmouth North Reform UK, toss-up
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
- Chichester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Isle of Wight East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated