Chichester
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chichester | 42.8% | 23.1% | 21.4% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+32.5 | 23.1%+0.1 | 20.4%+1.0 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,376 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 77.3% |
Current member
Jess Brown-Fuller · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 23.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 19.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Brown-Fuller Elected | Lib Dems | 25,540 | 49.2 |
| Gillian Keegan | Conservative | 13,368 | 25.7 |
| Teresa De Santis | Reform UK | 7,859 | 15.1 |
| Tom Collinge | Labour | 3,175 | 6.1 |
| Tim Young | Green | 1,815 | 3.5 |
| Andrew Emerson | Other | 190 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Reform UK, toss-up
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Arundel and South Downs Conservative, safe seat
- Portsmouth North Reform UK, toss-up
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated