Arundel and South Downs
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arundel and South Downs | 35.8% | 22.0% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.4 | 23.1%−1.0 | 10.3%+6.4 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,053 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 85.9% |
Current member
Andrew Griffith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 22.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Griffith Elected | Conservative | 22,001 | 40.2 |
| Richard Allen | Lib Dems | 9,867 | 18.0 |
| Christopher Philipsborn | Labour | 9,782 | 17.9 |
| David Thomas | Reform UK | 7,391 | 13.5 |
| Steve McAuliffe | Green | 5,515 | 10.1 |
| Mike Smith | Other | 184 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Reform UK, toss-up
- Worthing West Conservative, toss-up
- Chichester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Godalming and Ash Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated