Godalming and Ash
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godalming and Ash | 37.8% | 36.1% | 15.5% | 5.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+17.4 | 10.3%+25.8 | 23.1%−7.5 | 10.4%−5.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,131 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 84.3% |
Current member
Sir Jeremy Hunt · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 1.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hunt Elected | Conservative | 23,293 | 42.6 |
| Paul Follows | Lib Dems | 22,402 | 41.0 |
| Graham Drage | Reform UK | 4,815 | 8.8 |
| James Walsh | Labour | 2,748 | 5.0 |
| Ruby Tucker | Green | 1,243 | 2.3 |
| Harriet Williams | Other | 195 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Guildford Lib Dems, safe seat
- Woking Lib Dems, safe seat
- Surrey Heath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Farnham and Bordon Conservative, toss-up
- Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative, safe seat
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated