Farnham and Bordon
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farnham and Bordon | 32.6% | 30.4% | 18.1% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.2 | 10.3%+20.1 | 23.1%−5.0 | 24.3%−15.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,699 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 75.4% |
Current member
Gregory Stafford · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Stafford Elected | Conservative | 18,951 | 35.8 |
| Khalil Yousuf | Lib Dems | 17,602 | 33.2 |
| Alex Just | Labour | 7,328 | 13.8 |
| Ged Hall | Reform UK | 6,217 | 11.7 |
| Claire Matthes | Green | 2,496 | 4.7 |
| Don Jerrard | Other | 421 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
- East Hampshire Conservative, toss-up
- Godalming and Ash Conservative, toss-up
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Surrey Heath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bracknell Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated