Bracknell
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bracknell | 28.6% | 25.5% | 23.2% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.2 | 23.1%+2.4 | 24.3%−1.0 | 10.3%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,980 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 83.6% |
Current member
Peter Swallow · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Swallow Elected | Labour | 14,783 | 33.7 |
| James Sunderland | Conservative | 13,999 | 31.9 |
| Malcolm Tullett | Reform UK | 7,445 | 17.0 |
| Katie Mansfield | Lib Dems | 4,768 | 10.9 |
| Emily Torode | Green | 2,166 | 4.9 |
| Olivio Barreto | Other | 480 | 1.1 |
| Jason Reardon | Other | 196 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wokingham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Surrey Heath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
- Windsor Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated