Earley and Woodley
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earley and Woodley | 32.6% | 27.1% | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.2 | 24.3%+2.9 | 23.1%−9.3 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,434 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 78.7% |
Current member
Yuan Yang · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuan Yang Elected | Labour | 18,209 | 39.7 |
| Pauline Jorgensen | Conservative | 17,361 | 37.8 |
| Tahir Maher | Lib Dems | 6,142 | 13.4 |
| Gary Shacklady | Green | 3,418 | 7.4 |
| Alastair Hunter | Other | 784 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Wokingham Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Hampshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Bracknell Conservative, toss-up
- Aldershot Reform UK, toss-up
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated