Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | 29.7% | 29.2% | 19.5% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.7 | 20.4%+8.8 | 24.3%−4.8 | 10.3%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,496 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 80.5% |
Current member
Alison Griffiths · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Griffiths Elected | Conservative | 15,678 | 32.8 |
| Clare Walsh | Labour | 13,913 | 29.1 |
| Sandra Daniells | Reform UK | 10,262 | 21.5 |
| Henry Jones | Lib Dems | 5,081 | 10.6 |
| Carol Birch | Green | 2,185 | 4.6 |
| David Kurten | Other | 708 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Arundel and South Downs Conservative, safe seat
- Worthing West Conservative, toss-up
- Chichester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Godalming and Ash Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated