Isle of Wight East
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Green | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isle of Wight East | 28.9% | 27.2% | 20.0% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.8 | 20.4%+6.8 | 10.4%+9.6 | 24.3%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 69,526 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 53 |
| Employment rate | 70.7% |
Current member
Joe Robertson · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Robertson Elected | Conservative | 10,427 | 30.6 |
| Sarah Morris | Reform UK | 7,104 | 20.9 |
| Vix Lowthion | Green | 6,313 | 18.5 |
| Emily Brothers | Labour | 6,264 | 18.4 |
| Michael Lilley | Lib Dems | 3,550 | 10.4 |
| David Groocock | Other | 420 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Portsmouth South Labour, safe seat
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
- Portsmouth North Reform UK, toss-up
- Havant Reform UK, toss-up
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated