Hamble Valley
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamble Valley | 32.3% | 25.1% | 22.4% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.9 | 10.3%+14.8 | 23.1%−0.7 | 24.3%−13.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,937 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 92.5% |
Current member
Paul Holmes · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 8.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Holmes Elected | Conservative | 19,671 | 36.4 |
| Prad Bains | Lib Dems | 14,869 | 27.5 |
| Devina Paul | Labour | 8,753 | 16.2 |
| Caroline Gladwin | Reform UK | 8,216 | 15.2 |
| Kate Needham | Green | 2,310 | 4.3 |
| Binka Griffin | Other | 185 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southampton Itchen Labour, toss-up
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- New Forest East Conservative, safe seat
- Southampton Test Labour, safe seat
- Gosport Conservative, safe seat
- Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated