New Forest West
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Forest West | 32.5% | 24.2% | 15.9% | 15.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.1 | 23.1%+1.1 | 10.3%+5.6 | 24.3%−8.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 84,792 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 54 |
| Employment rate | 79.6% |
Current member
Sir Desmond Swayne · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Swayne Elected | Conservative | 16,412 | 35.4 |
| Sally Johnston | Labour | 10,812 | 23.3 |
| Jack Davies | Lib Dems | 8,186 | 17.7 |
| Reginald Chester-Sterne | Reform UK | 7,577 | 16.4 |
| Anna Collar | Green | 2,800 | 6.0 |
| Gavin Ridley | Other | 393 | 0.9 |
| Paul Simon | Other | 157 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- Isle of Wight West Reform UK, toss-up
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Salisbury Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated