Bournemouth East
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth East | 28.0% | 25.3% | 24.1% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.7 | 20.4%+4.9 | 23.1%+1.1 | 10.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,584 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 75.7% |
Current member
Tom Hayes · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Hayes Elected | Labour | 18,316 | 40.8 |
| Tobias Ellwood | Conservative | 12,837 | 28.6 |
| Martin Houlden | Reform UK | 6,268 | 14.0 |
| Jon Nicholas | Lib Dems | 3,082 | 6.9 |
| Joe Salmon | Green | 2,790 | 6.2 |
| Kieron Wilson | Other | 1,529 | 3.4 |
| Miles Penn | Other | 88 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Isle of Wight West Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated