Christchurch
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christchurch | 32.0% | 26.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.6 | 23.1%+3.8 | 10.3%+7.3 | 24.3%−14.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 87,998 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 54 |
| Employment rate | 79.2% |
Current member
Sir Christopher Chope · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 15.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Chope Elected | Conservative | 16,941 | 35.8 |
| Mike Cox | Lib Dems | 9,486 | 20.0 |
| Robin Adamson | Reform UK | 8,961 | 18.9 |
| Joanna Howard | Labour | 7,762 | 16.4 |
| Susan Graham | Green | 1,900 | 4.0 |
| Simon McCormack | Other | 1,728 | 3.7 |
| Sasha Jolliffe Yasawi | Other | 335 | 0.7 |
| Steve Unwin | Other | 163 | 0.3 |
| Trevor Parsons | Other | 59 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- Isle of Wight West Reform UK, toss-up
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated