Poole
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poole | 28.3% | 26.6% | 20.5% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.9 | 23.1%+3.6 | 24.3%−3.7 | 10.3%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,508 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 77.8% |
Current member
Neil Duncan-Jordan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Duncan-Jordan Elected | Labour | 14,168 | 31.8 |
| Robert Syms | Conservative | 14,150 | 31.8 |
| Andrei Dragotoniu | Reform UK | 7,429 | 16.7 |
| Oliver Walters | Lib Dems | 5,507 | 12.4 |
| Sarah Ward | Green | 2,218 | 5.0 |
| Joe Cronin | Other | 698 | 1.6 |
| Leanne Barnes | Other | 325 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- North Dorset Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated