Mid Dorset and North Poole
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | 38.1% | 32.8% | 13.2% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.8 | 20.4%+12.3 | 23.1%−9.8 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,238 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 79.7% |
Current member
Vikki Slade · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 5.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikki Slade Elected | Lib Dems | 21,442 | 43.3 |
| Michael Tomlinson | Conservative | 20,090 | 40.6 |
| Candice Johnson-Cole | Labour | 4,566 | 9.2 |
| Ben Pantling | Green | 2,355 | 4.8 |
| John Dowling | Other | 1,061 | 2.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- North Dorset Conservative, toss-up
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated