Salisbury
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salisbury | 31.6% | 20.1% | 18.7% | 18.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.2 | 10.3%+9.8 | 23.1%−4.4 | 24.3%−5.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,881 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 82.1% |
Current member
John Glen · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Glen Elected | Conservative | 17,110 | 34.1 |
| Matt Aldridge | Labour | 13,303 | 26.5 |
| Victoria Charleston | Lib Dems | 11,825 | 23.6 |
| Julian Malins | Reform UK | 5,235 | 10.4 |
| Barney Norris | Green | 2,115 | 4.2 |
| Arthur Pendragon | Other | 458 | 0.9 |
| Chris Harwood | Other | 127 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- East Wiltshire Conservative, safe seat
- Bournemouth West Reform UK, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, toss-up
- South West Wiltshire Conservative, competitive
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated