East Wiltshire
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Wiltshire | 32.5% | 24.6% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.1 | 23.1%+1.6 | 24.3%−7.1 | 10.3%+4.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,866 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 78.3% |
Current member
Danny Kruger · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kruger Elected | Conservative | 16,849 | 35.7 |
| Rob Newman | Labour | 12,133 | 25.7 |
| David Kinnaird | Lib Dems | 8,204 | 17.4 |
| Stephen Talbot | Reform UK | 7,885 | 16.7 |
| Emily Herbert | Green | 1,844 | 3.9 |
| Pete Force-Jones | Other | 278 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Swindon South Labour, safe seat
- Chippenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Swindon North Reform UK, toss-up
- Salisbury Conservative, safe seat
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
- Melksham and Devizes Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated