Chippenham
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chippenham | 40.7% | 24.5% | 20.7% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.4 | 20.4%+4.0 | 23.1%−2.4 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,179 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 81.1% |
Current member
Sarah Gibson · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 16.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Gibson Elected | Lib Dems | 22,552 | 45.6 |
| Nic Puntis | Conservative | 14,414 | 29.1 |
| Benjamin Ginsburg | Reform UK | 6,127 | 12.4 |
| Ravi Venkatesh | Labour | 3,925 | 7.9 |
| Declan Baseley | Green | 1,954 | 4.0 |
| Ed Deedigan | Other | 540 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Melksham and Devizes Lib Dems, toss-up
- Swindon South Labour, safe seat
- East Wiltshire Conservative, safe seat
- Swindon North Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Wiltshire Conservative, competitive
- Bath Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated