South West Wiltshire
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South West Wiltshire | 30.9% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.5 | 23.1%+2.0 | 24.3%−5.7 | 10.3%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,549 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 86.0% |
Current member
Dr Andrew Murrison · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Murrison Elected | Conservative | 15,617 | 33.8 |
| Evelyn Akoto | Labour | 12,374 | 26.8 |
| Garry Irvin | Reform UK | 7,840 | 17.0 |
| Bret Palmer | Lib Dems | 7,205 | 15.6 |
| Fay Whitfield | Green | 2,243 | 4.9 |
| James Ward | Other | 448 | 1.0 |
| Thomas Culshaw | Other | 441 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Melksham and Devizes Lib Dems, toss-up
- Bath Lib Dems, safe seat
- Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems, safe seat
- Chippenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Salisbury Conservative, safe seat
- North Dorset Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated