Bridgwater
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 63%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgwater | 31.3% | 26.9% | 18.0% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.2 | 20.4%+6.5 | 24.3%−6.2 | 10.3%+2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,065 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 80.1% |
Current member
Sir Ashley Fox · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Fox Elected | Conservative | 12,281 | 30.6 |
| Leigh Redman | Labour | 10,932 | 27.2 |
| Wiliam Fagg | Reform UK | 8,913 | 22.2 |
| Claire Sully | Lib Dems | 5,781 | 14.4 |
| Charles Graham | Green | 1,720 | 4.3 |
| Pelé Barnes | Other | 334 | 0.8 |
| Gregory Tanner | Other | 168 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Taunton and Wellington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Weston-super-Mare Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, competitive
- Wells and Mendip Hills Lib Dems, safe seat
- Yeovil Lib Dems, safe seat
- Tiverton and Minehead Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated