Cardiff South and Penarth
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff South and Penarth | 26.3% | 19.2% | 17.7% | 16.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.1 | 10.4%+8.8 | 1.3%+16.4 | 23.1%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,698 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 30 |
| Employment rate | 80.7% |
Current member
Stephen Doughty · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Doughty Elected | Labour | 17,428 | 44.5 |
| Anthony Slaughter | Green | 5,661 | 14.5 |
| Ellis Smith | Conservative | 5,459 | 13.9 |
| Simon Llewellyn | Reform UK | 4,493 | 11.5 |
| Sharifah Rahman | Plaid Cymru | 3,227 | 8.2 |
| Alex Wilson | Lib Dems | 2,908 | 7.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Weston-super-Mare Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated