Newport West and Islwyn
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport West and Islwyn | 25.6% | 25.2% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+1.3 | 23.1%+2.2 | 1.3%+15.1 | 20.4%−6.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,855 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 78.3% |
Current member
Ruth Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth Jones Elected | Labour | 17,409 | 41.5 |
| Paul Taylor | Reform UK | 8,541 | 20.4 |
| Nick Jones | Conservative | 6,710 | 16.0 |
| Brandon Ham | Plaid Cymru | 3,529 | 8.4 |
| Mike Hamilton | Lib Dems | 2,087 | 5.0 |
| Kerry Vosper | Green | 2,078 | 5.0 |
| George Etheridge | Other | 1,597 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newport East Labour, toss-up
- Torfaen Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated