Cardiff West
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff West | 30.5% | 20.0% | 16.9% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+29.2 | 24.3%−4.3 | 23.1%−6.2 | 20.4%−7.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,802 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 65.7% |
Current member
Mr Alex Barros-Curtis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.7 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 10.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Barros-Curtis Elected | Labour | 16,442 | 36.7 |
| Kiera Marshall | Plaid Cymru | 9,423 | 21.1 |
| James Hamblin | Conservative | 6,835 | 15.3 |
| Peter Hopkins | Reform UK | 5,626 | 12.6 |
| Jess Ryan | Green | 3,157 | 7.1 |
| Manda Rigby | Lib Dems | 1,921 | 4.3 |
| Neil McEvoy | Other | 1,041 | 2.3 |
| John Urquhart | Other | 241 | 0.5 |
| Sean Wesley | Other | 71 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Vale of Glamorgan Conservative, toss-up
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated