Vale of Glamorgan
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vale of Glamorgan | 24.9% | 22.9% | 21.8% | 15.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+4.4 | 24.3%−1.3 | 23.1%−1.3 | 1.3%+14.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,639 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Kanishka Narayan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kanishka Narayan Elected | Labour | 17,740 | 38.7 |
| Alun Cairns | Conservative | 13,524 | 29.5 |
| Toby Rhodes-Matthews | Reform UK | 6,973 | 15.2 |
| Ian Johnson | Plaid Cymru | 3,245 | 7.1 |
| Lynden Mack | Green | 1,881 | 4.1 |
| Steven Rajam | Lib Dems | 1,612 | 3.5 |
| Stuart Field | Other | 669 | 1.5 |
| Steven Sluman | Other | 182 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated