Rhondda and Ogmore
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhondda and Ogmore | 28.2% | 27.7% | 26.1% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.2 | 24.3%+3.5 | 1.3%+24.8 | 10.4%−3.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,022 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 63.9% |
Current member
Chris Bryant · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bryant Elected | Labour | 17,118 | 47.8 |
| Darren James | Reform UK | 9,328 | 26.1 |
| Owen Cutler | Plaid Cymru | 5,198 | 14.5 |
| Adam Robinson | Conservative | 2,050 | 5.7 |
| Christine Glossop | Green | 1,177 | 3.3 |
| Gerald Francis | Lib Dems | 935 | 2.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Vale of Glamorgan Conservative, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated