Neath and Swansea East
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neath and Swansea East | 29.9% | 25.7% | 19.9% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.8 | 24.3%+1.4 | 1.3%+18.6 | 20.4%−11.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,765 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Carolyn Harris · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Harris Elected | Labour | 16,797 | 41.9 |
| Dai Richards | Reform UK | 10,170 | 25.3 |
| Andrew Jenkins | Plaid Cymru | 5,350 | 13.3 |
| Samantha Chohan | Conservative | 3,765 | 9.4 |
| Helen Clarke | Lib Dems | 2,344 | 5.8 |
| Jan Dowden | Green | 1,711 | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated