Gower
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gower | 27.3% | 22.7% | 16.8% | 15.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.0 | 23.1%−0.4 | 20.4%−3.6 | 1.3%+14.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,686 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Tonia Antoniazzi · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 24.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tonia Antoniazzi Elected | Labour | 20,480 | 43.4 |
| Marc Jenkins | Conservative | 8,913 | 18.9 |
| Catrin Thomas | Reform UK | 8,530 | 18.1 |
| Kieran Pritchard | Plaid Cymru | 3,942 | 8.3 |
| Franck Banza | Lib Dems | 2,593 | 5.5 |
| Chris Evans | Green | 2,488 | 5.3 |
| Wayne Erasmus | Other | 283 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- North Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated