Aberafan Maesteg
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 83%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberafan Maesteg | 29.0% | 26.2% | 25.0% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.7 | 23.1%+3.1 | 1.3%+23.7 | 20.4%−13.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,319 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 72.1% |
Current member
Stephen Kinnock · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 29.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock Elected | Labour | 17,838 | 49.9 |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK | 7,484 | 20.9 |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru | 4,719 | 13.2 |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative | 2,903 | 8.1 |
| Nigel Hill | Green | 1,094 | 3.1 |
| Justin Griffiths | Lib Dems | 916 | 2.6 |
| Captain Beany | Other | 618 | 1.7 |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Other | 183 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated